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Structured Analytic Techniques (SATs)

Structured Analytic Techniques (SATs)

Section titled “Structured Analytic Techniques (SATs)”

Research Resources

Section titled “Research Resources”

Eight Rules for Successful Brainstorming

Section titled “Eight Rules for Successful Brainstorming”

See reference materials for brainstorming guidelines.

Technique Level 1

Section titled “Technique Level 1”

Technique 1: Chronologies and Timelines

Section titled “Technique 1: Chronologies and Timelines”

(Pherson and Heuer, 2021, p. 211)

Step-by-Step Guide:

  1. STEP 1: Identify all key events and arrange them chronologically in a table with one column for the date and one column for the event. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 159)

  2. STEP 2: Select relevant information from the event narrative and organize it along the timeline. Can the data be categorized? (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 160)

  3. STEP 3: Review the timeline by asking questions:

    • Are assumptions about evidence considered?
    • Does the duration and sequence of events make sense?
    • Are there gaps in the data?

Source: (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 160)

Technique 1: Getting Started Checklist

Section titled “Technique 1: Getting Started Checklist”

Step-by-Step Guide:

  1. STEP 1: What prompted the analysis? Is it a report, development, or customer request? (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 110)

  2. STEP 2: What is the key question that needs to be answered? (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 110)

  3. STEP 3: Why is the issue important, and how will analysis make a difference? (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 110)

  4. STEP 4: Has the question been answered before? What has changed? (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 110-111)

  5. STEP 5: Who are the primary customers? Are their needs clear? (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 111)

  6. STEP 6: Are there other stakeholders with differing perspectives? (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 111)

Technique 1: Starbursting

Section titled “Technique 1: Starbursting”

Find the template from MindTools or download here.

(Pherson and Heuer, 2021, p. 167)

Question TypeFocus
What?Define the problem/question
Why?Understand motivations
Who?Identify stakeholders
How?Determine methods
When?Establish timing
Where?Identify locations

Technique 1: Force Field Analysis

Section titled “Technique 1: Force Field Analysis”

Step-by-Step Guide:

  1. STEP 1: Define the problem or goal clearly. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 133)

  2. STEP 2: Brainstorm the main factors influencing the issue. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 133)

  3. STEP 3: Create two lists—one for supporting arguments and one for opposing ones. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 133)

  4. STEP 4: Assign values to the arguments to determine their strength. Calculate the total score to determine the dominant side. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 133)

(Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 133)

Technique 1: Key Assumptions Check

Section titled “Technique 1: Key Assumptions Check”

Step-by-Step Guide:

  1. STEP 1: Gather a group, including outsiders, to brainstorm assumptions. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 185)

  2. STEP 2: List assumptions on a whiteboard and critique them. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 185)

  3. STEP 3: Categorize assumptions as supported, uncertain, or unsupported. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 186)

  4. STEP 4: Refine the list and update based on group feedback. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 186)

(Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 186)

Technique 1: Red Hat Analysis and Structured Brainstorming

Section titled “Technique 1: Red Hat Analysis and Structured Brainstorming”

Avoid mirror imaging—assuming others think like you. Red Hat Analysis helps to view problems as others might, particularly adversaries.

Step-by-Step Guide:

  1. STEP 1: Gather analysts with knowledge of the target, environment, or decision-makers. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 323)

  2. STEP 2: Use sticky notes to brainstorm without discussion. Focus on what the adversary would consider when acting. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 323)

  3. STEP 3: Group and analyze ideas for common themes. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 323)

Technique 1: Structured Brainstorming

Section titled “Technique 1: Structured Brainstorming”

Step-by-Step Guide:

  1. STEP 1: Gather a team of analysts. Use sticky notes for brainstorming, focusing on possible causes or factors. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 250)

  2. STEP 2: Post sticky notes on a wall and rearrange them into groups based on similarities. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 251)

  3. STEP 3: Analyze themes and draw conclusions for further investigation. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 251)

Technique Level 2

Section titled “Technique Level 2”

Technique 2: Deception Detection

Section titled “Technique 2: Deception Detection”

Step-by-Step Guide:

  1. STEP 1: Use deception detection checklists to assess the situation. Consider the motives, past practices, and the source’s credibility. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 161)

  2. STEP 2: Analyze deception potential using checklists such as MOM (Motive, Opportunity, Means) and POP (Past Opposition Practices). (Pherson and Heuer, 2021, p. 256)

AI Content Detection

Section titled “AI Content Detection”

How to detect synthetic content:

Technique 2: Decision Matrix

Section titled “Technique 2: Decision Matrix”

Step-by-Step Guide:

  1. STEP 1: Identify the decision or question. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 454)

  2. STEP 2: List criteria and options. Consolidate items to remove overlap. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 454)

  3. STEP 3: Assign weights and score options. Calculate the total score and choose the best option. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 456)

Decision Matrix Template:

CriteriaWeightOption 1Option 2Option 3
Criterion 1
Criterion 2
Criterion 3
Criterion 4
Criterion 5
Total Weighted Score
Best Option

Technique 2: Devil’s Advocacy

Section titled “Technique 2: Devil’s Advocacy”

Devil’s Advocacy helps critique decisions or plans by exploring what could go wrong.

Step-by-Step Guide:

  1. STEP 1: Start with the project’s goals, assumptions, and gaps. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 187)

  2. STEP 2: Build a logical case against the proposed decision by focusing on potential pitfalls. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 187)

Technique 2: Mind Maps

Section titled “Technique 2: Mind Maps”

Step-by-Step Guide:

  1. STEP 1: Write the focal question at the center of the page. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 233)

  2. STEP 2: Brainstorm possible explanations and group ideas into categories. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 233)

  3. STEP 3: Expand the mind map by drawing connections between ideas. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 234)

Technique 2: Morphological Analysis

Section titled “Technique 2: Morphological Analysis”

Step-by-Step Guide:

  1. STEP 1: Define the problem’s dimensions (group, activity, method, impact). (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 404)

  2. STEP 2: Combine dimensions to generate alternative scenarios and refine them. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 404)

Technique 2: Multiple Hypothesis Generation—Simple Hypotheses

Section titled “Technique 2: Multiple Hypothesis Generation—Simple Hypotheses”

Step-by-Step Guide:

  1. STEP 1: Brainstorm hypotheses. Write them down and consolidate similar ideas. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 207)

  2. STEP 2: Clarify each hypothesis using Who, What, When, Where, and Why. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 207)

  3. STEP 3: Select the most promising hypotheses for further analysis. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 207)

Multiple Hypothesis Generation Table:

HypothesisWhoWhatWhenWhereWhy
Hypothesis 1
Hypothesis 2
Hypothesis 3
Hypothesis 4
Hypothesis 5

Selected Promising Hypotheses for Further Analysis:

  • Selected Hypothesis 1: (e.g., Hypothesis 1 based on evidence and plausibility)
  • Selected Hypothesis 2: (e.g., Hypothesis 3 with strong indicators)

Technique 2: Pros-Cons-Faults-and-Fixes

Section titled “Technique 2: Pros-Cons-Faults-and-Fixes”

Step-by-Step Guide:

  1. STEP 1: Define the decision clearly. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 277)

  2. STEP 2: List pros and cons, and develop fixes for the cons. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 277)

  3. STEP 3: Compare the pros and cons, and assess the risk associated with each. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 278)

Technique 2: What If? Analysis

Section titled “Technique 2: What If? Analysis”

Step-by-Step Guide:

  1. STEP 1: Assume the event has occurred and develop a chain of reasoning for how it happened. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 350)

  2. STEP 2: Rank scenarios based on severity and probability. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 351)

Technique Level 3

Section titled “Technique Level 3”

Technique 3: Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH)

Section titled “Technique 3: Analysis of Competing Hypotheses (ACH)”

Step-by-Step Guide:

  1. STEP 1: List hypotheses to be considered. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 209)

  2. STEP 2: Assess information for consistency with each hypothesis. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 209)

  3. STEP 3: Refine hypotheses and conclusions based on inconsistencies. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 210)

ACH Matrix Template:

Evidence/ArgumentsH1H2H3H4H5
Evidence/Argument 1CINCI
Evidence/Argument 2NCIIC
Evidence/Argument 3INCCI
Evidence/Argument 4CCNIN
Evidence/Argument 5INCIC
Total InconsistenciesXYZAB

Key: C = Consistent, I = Inconsistent, N = Neutral

Tentative Conclusion: The hypothesis with the fewest inconsistencies is the most likely.

(Pherson and Heuer, 2021, p. 245)

Technique 3: Strengths-Weaknesses-Opportunities-Threats (SWOT)

Section titled “Technique 3: Strengths-Weaknesses-Opportunities-Threats (SWOT)”

Step-by-Step Guide:

  1. STEP 1: Define the objective clearly. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 188)

  2. STEP 2: List strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, and threats. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 188)

  3. STEP 3: Identify strategies for exploiting strengths and opportunities, and mitigating weaknesses and threats.

(Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 188)

SWOT Analysis Template:

StrengthsWeaknesses
- Strength 1- Weakness 1
- Strength 2- Weakness 2
- Strength 3- Weakness 3
OpportunitiesThreats
- Opportunity 1- Threat 1
- Opportunity 2- Threat 2
- Opportunity 3- Threat 3

Strategies for Action:

Exploiting Strengths & Opportunities:

  • Strategy 1: (e.g., Use Strength 1 to maximize Opportunity 1)
  • Strategy 2: (e.g., Leverage Strength 2 to counter Threat 2)
  • Strategy 3: (e.g., Use Opportunity 3 to reduce Weakness 3)

Mitigating Weaknesses & Threats:

  • Strategy 4: (e.g., Address Weakness 2 to avoid Threat 1)
  • Strategy 5: (e.g., Minimize Weakness 1 through Opportunity 2)

Technique 3: Foresight Quadrant Crunching

Section titled “Technique 3: Foresight Quadrant Crunching”

Step-by-Step Guide:

  1. STEP 1: Break the lead hypothesis into component parts and identify critical dimensions. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 354)

  2. STEP 2: Use 2x2 matrices to generate alternative scenarios. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 354)

(Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 354)

Technique 3: Indicators

Section titled “Technique 3: Indicators”

Step-by-Step Guide:

  1. STEP 1: Brainstorm indicators for each scenario. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 328)

  2. STEP 2: Refine the indicators, ensuring they are observable, valid, reliable, and stable. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 328)

Technique Level 4

Section titled “Technique Level 4”

(To be expanded)

Technique Level 5

Section titled “Technique Level 5”

(To be expanded)

References

Section titled “References”
  • Beebe, S. M., & Pherson, R. H. (2015). Cases in Intelligence Analysis: Structured Analytic Techniques in Action.
  • Pherson, R. H., & Heuer, R. J. (2021). Structured Analytic Techniques for Intelligence Analysis.