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What If? Analysis

What If? Analysis

Section titled “What If? Analysis”

What It Is: A contrarian technique that assumes a hypothetical event has occurred and then works backward to determine how it could have happened.

When to Use It: To prepare for low-probability, high-impact events and to identify previously unappreciated pathways to that event.

Step-by-Step Guide:

  1. STEP 1: Assume the event has occurred and develop a chain of reasoning for how it happened. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 350)
  2. STEP 2: Rank scenarios based on severity and probability. (Beebe and Pherson, 2015, p. 351)