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Deception Detection

Deception Detection

Section titled “Deception Detection”

What It Is: A set of techniques used to systematically evaluate the possibility that a source is intentionally misleading the analyst. It involves assessing the source’s motives, capabilities, and past behavior, as well as the credibility of the evidence itself.

When to Use It: When dealing with information from a source that may have a reason to deceive, such as a foreign government, a clandestine source, or a competitor.

Frameworks for Deception Detection:

Several mnemonic frameworks are used to guide the deception detection process:

  • MOM (Motive, Opportunity, Means):

    • Motive: Does the source have a reason to deceive? What do they stand to gain or lose?
    • Opportunity: Does the source have the opportunity to execute a deception plan? Do they control the flow of information?
    • Means: Does the source have the resources, capabilities, and expertise to carry out a deception?

  • POP (Past Opposition Practices):

    • Has the source or their organization used deception in the past?
    • Is there a documented history of them using certain tactics or methods of deception?

  • MICE (Money, Ideology, Compromise, Ego): This framework is used to understand the potential motivations for an individual source to cooperate or deceive.

    • Money: Is the source being paid for the information?
    • Ideology: Does the source have strong political or religious beliefs that would motivate them to deceive?
    • Compromise / Coercion: Is the source being blackmailed or pressured into providing information?
    • Ego: Is the source motivated by a desire for prestige, recognition, or a sense of self-importance?

  • EVE (Evaluation of Evidence): This framework focuses on the credibility of the evidence itself.

    • Evidence: How credible is the evidence on its own terms?
    • Validation: Can the evidence be corroborated by other, independent sources?
    • Evaluation: What is the overall assessment of the evidence’s credibility when considering all factors?

Step-by-Step Guide:

  1. STEP 1: Use the MICE framework to assess the potential motivations of an individual source.
  2. STEP 2: Use the MOM and POP frameworks to assess the source’s capability and past history of deception.
  3. STEP 3: Use the EVE framework to evaluate the credibility of the information provided.
  4. STEP 4: Synthesize the findings from all frameworks to make an overall judgment about the likelihood of deception.